Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 22.643069 27.121615 32.053954 37.862333 44.487239 51.779833 60.385368
2025-05-25 15.305536 20.976314 27.883593 36.797523 47.867955 61.031747 77.723319
2025-06-01 11.478723 17.519754 25.478948 36.478710 51.003768 69.229006 93.488670
2025-06-08 8.590038 14.489379 22.836490 35.088238 52.135615 74.502802 105.474820
2025-06-15 7.193120 13.207437 22.237445 36.152777 56.330807 83.734833 122.835308
2025-06-22 5.643203 11.336435 20.428396 35.147732 57.382999 88.612078 134.468329
2025-06-29 4.884729 10.588504 20.176482 36.332786 61.546138 97.900758 152.480605
2025-07-06 3.721880 8.865643 18.068571 34.331272 60.691749 99.864014 160.171461
2025-07-13 3.279624 8.395963 17.988178 35.540571 64.779890 109.171198 178.731649
2025-07-20 2.871598 7.902584 17.780466 36.476895 68.445293 117.971260 196.870526
2025-07-27 2.571181 7.570762 17.813086 37.800950 72.782289 127.951879 217.122554
2025-08-03 2.299674 7.242106 17.797461 39.011484 76.969625 137.848780 237.587582
2025-08-10 1.889162 6.522054 16.984705 38.843871 79.097111 145.067094 255.025507
2025-08-17 1.468662 5.650517 15.722063 37.703019 79.489056 149.606975 268.680332
2025-08-24 1.185522 5.053140 14.937357 37.375248 81.249752 156.409258 286.126258
2025-08-31 0.898604 4.324919 13.702607 35.957165 80.856044 159.532128 297.725958
2025-09-07 0.783412 4.112080 13.667990 37.042753 85.203453 170.875422 323.112189
2025-09-14 0.602814 3.581359 12.720071 36.017833 85.397387 175.017756 336.732148
2025-09-21 0.530985 3.438521 12.771009 37.226309 90.030986 187.126386 364.073363
2025-09-28 0.378326 2.861749 11.488198 35.185144 87.984107 187.212146 371.046960
2025-10-05 0.334493 2.763853 11.578615 36.418454 92.698269 199.695090 399.642137
2025-10-12 0.290177 2.637933 11.558460 37.373257 96.880853 211.359116 427.179303
2025-10-19 0.258769 2.564784 11.691634 38.723283 101.973481 224.893604 458.381486